Fixed Income - Risk Parity Anchor

Long Term Treasuries

Why Invest in Long Term Treasuries?

Long Term Treasuries are negatively correlated with equities during deep economic recessions and market panics when flight-to-safety capital flows occur. In other times long term treasures may be positively or negatively correlated with stocks but overall there is zero to slightly negative correlation to the overall stock market

Implementation Strategy

TLT is the oldest fund but has a higher expense ratio. All funds are 99–100% correlated. SCHQ is relatively small so I would avoid it. GOVZ is a strips fund which acts like a leverged version of TLT, with a 1.5x multiplier.

Tax & Account Location Guidance

HOLD IN IRA: Coupon payments and dividends are taxed as ordinary income.

Fund Symbol Type Expense Ratio Market Cap / AUM Live Price Index / Benchmark / Notes
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF VGLT ETF 0.03% $15.1B $49.92 Bloomberg Long U.S. Treasury Index 10-25 year maturity; Recommended
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT ETF 0.15% $47.2B $77.48 IDC US Treasury 20+ Year Index 20+ year maturity; Oldest & most liquid
Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF SCHQ ETF 0.03% $940.5M $28.32 Bloomberg US Long Treasury Index 10+ year maturity; Small fund size
SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF SPTL ETF 0.03% $10.9B $23.75 Bloomberg Long U.S. Treasury Index 10+ year maturity; Low cost option
iShares 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury STRIPS ETF GOVZ ETF 0.15% $307.1M $30.70 ICE 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Zero-coupon STRIPS fund but distributes a taxable dividend; ~1.5x duration leverage multiplier vs TLT

Academic References & Deep-Dive Links

  • Academic Paper: LONG-TERM TREASURIES IN A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO — Timur Kaya Yontar (2018) (Read Paper)